by Golf Betting Tips: Hangzhou Open
1.5 points ew Matthew Cheung at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5 points ew Zhengkai Bai at 300/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
There’s a lot to win in the penultimate event of the Challenge Tour season, as in two weeks the top 46 players on the Road to Mallorca will have earned a place in the Grand Final. Normally there are 45, but Robin Williams is a non-member who has already accumulated more than enough points to travel to Spain and the field will therefore be expanded to accommodate him.
The crucial number is of course 20, which means how many cards will be issued at the end of the season. This value also appears to be increasing by one as Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is on track to collect enough Race to Dubai points, which would mean he does not need his Challenge Tour exemption. Maybe good news for his compatriot, who is in 21st place.
It’s all part of the fun of the Feeder Tour, but I can’t say I enjoyed many tournaments less than I did last week. On Thursday, Wilco Nienaber shot into the lead at eight under with Tapio Pulkkanen sitting right behind him before Alex Levy and Lucas Bjerregaard made quiet early progress. At the end of the week, none of the four were in the top 10.
Perhaps that’s a good lesson in overconfidence, and even if a foreign winner from high up in the Challenge Tour rankings (Hamish Brown finished fourth overall, second in the field) would have justified it Should probably win the home tour, but with a player from the Philippines.
This week China is the favorite and I’m crazy about Wenyi Ding. In fact, I picked him at the Hainan Open last year, where he finished third at 50/1, and believe there is a very good chance he will emerge as China’s first world-class men’s player. Everything he’s done as an amateur, from Asia to the US, suggests he has that potential.
Wenyi doesn’t turn 20 until next month and this will be his professional debut after forgoing Masters and Open invitations that came with his recent victory in the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, for which he was the favorite. This decision was based in part on the fact that he was also offered a DP World Tour membership for 2025, and I can’t wait to see what he can do with it. PGA Tour Rookie of the Year 2026? Just maybe.
Already, DataGolf Put him at about the same level as Oliver Lindell, the Challenge Tour’s in-form player, and Wenyi is therefore an understandable favorite. I won’t argue against the idea of this potential superstar ending his amateur career with a win and then starting his pro career with another win.
Last year he competed in the Asian Games on this course and finished 15th. So since he also has court experience, I can understand why some will be interested in getting ahead of the game. That being said, he’s now priced at around the same price as APAC, and while I couldn’t argue with the outstanding odds of 16/1 on Monday, I can have him winning at revised odds of 10.
Preference is for MATTHEW CHEUNGa Hong Kong pro who is a bit overpriced in his 40s.
Cheung also competed in the Asian Games here, finishing just behind Wenyi, and has since made a really good start to life on the Asian Development Tour, where he currently sits sixth in the performance rankings despite having only played five tournaments.
Last week he competed on the Asian Tour for the Macau Open and finished 16th after a final 65, just behind Brian Harman and Min Woo Lee, and he has barely put a foot wrong all year. That includes a return to the China Tour, where he finished ninth, second and third, significantly improving on his rookie season in 2019, and DP World Tour Q-School, where he finished T1 on stage one last month.
Had he played enough rounds to keep up? DataGolfCheung would be right alongside Angel Ayora and JC Ritchie, both 22/1 shots. Given that he has hidden price form and is at the top of his game, which is still improving, I’m happy to take the chance at more than 25/1 odds as I believe that his performances at the ADT and in Macau last week were underestimated.
Enhua Liu won the China Tour event played here last May, a trial run for the rescheduled Asian Games, and his 65-second farewell brace shows how vulnerable Hangzhou Westlake International can be. Taichi Kho, Cheung’s compatriot, won individual gold in the 27-under division at the Asian Games, and with rain before the tournament begins, I suspect we’ll see at least something close to the 20-under division.
With a drivable par 4 still to come, this could benefit Wilco Nienaber, who now sits at No. 22 in the leaderboard, but he’s been cut in the betting and we just don’t have the same evidence as we did a week ago. In Hainan I was confident that longer riders would have success, and that generally seemed to be the case, with Lindell passing up a golden opportunity and the likes of Nienaber and Niklas Lemke being up there for most of the week.
Here I am less sure and doubt that there is much to be learned from the fact that the course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. It would be disingenuous to try to draw parallels with St Mellion in Cornwall, Mount Juliet in Ireland or Tseleevo and Skolkovo in Russia. I don’t know how much Lee Slattery and Dave Horsey can remember first and third place at the latter, but I doubt their memories will be brought back into focus by this completely different golf course.
Pierre Pineau’s 68 in the second round after 80 in the first week last week could be enough to get him back on track and the enigmatic Frenchman was rated at 45/1, higher than he has been virtually all season while Jonathan Caldwell’s top performance improved. 20 was also noted. He turned 40 this summer and the DP World Tour winner has a lot going for him, although I think his lack of pop off the tee could be a handicap here.
Jan Schneider finished alongside him and the young German is making clear progress, while Alex Levy could be worth another chance given his record in China but is the only other attractive performance here ZHENGKAI BAIbetter known as Bobby.
He won the co-sanctioned 2019 Hainan Open in the style of a potential star, and although things haven’t gone to plan since then, he has had a couple of top-10 finishes on the China Tour this year and appears to be improving again. This includes his penultimate start, after which he was sixth at the halfway point before falling back to 21st.
Much more would be needed, but he finished 13th on his debut at this course last year when he was out of form, and that’s just enough to suggest a small bet of 200/1 and above as he knows his ceiling is demonstrably higher than most local players. The fact that he’s a long driver also gives us some x-factor, although last week’s performance at the Korn Ferry Tour Q-School is negative*.
In summary, this might be about the next superstar in Wenyi Ding, and if not, my vote would go to Wilco Nienaber. But it’s not enough to recommend one or the other and we’ll keep most of the powder dry for the grand finale in Mallorca.
*Bai’s appearance on the Korn Ferry Tour was overlooked in the initial analysis, with this note being added an hour after publication, an oversight on my part. Sincere apologies.
Posted 10/15/24 at 1715 BST
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